The Dallas Cowboys started the season extremely hot through the first three weeks of the season. They started 3-0 and averaged well over 30 ppg in those weeks while allowing a total of just 26 points to opponents. They even saw their preseason Super Bowl odds drop to as low as 800 from the 1100 odds they originally opened at the week going into the season.
However, their spark might have gone out since. From Weeks 4-6, they’ve gone 1-2 after suffering a horrible loss to the Arizona Cardinals who are currently in rebuild mode with a 28-16 final score after being an 11-point favorite.
The following week, they handled business against the New England Patriots 38-3 as a 6-point favorite. Then, the biggest matchup of the week on Sunday Night Football between the Cowboys and San Francisco 49ers saw them take an absolute beating at 42-10.
|Dak Prescott QB||5||5||160||111||69.4||1061||6.6||212.2||49||5||4||9||66||87.5|
|Cooper Rush QB||3||0||5||4||80.0||28||5.6||9.3||13||0||0||1||8||90.0|
They did lead the league in points per game, yards per game, and points allowed per game at one point. Since, they’ve dropped to the eighth most points per game at 26.8, 16 in yards per game (327.4), and seventh in points allowed per game (16.6) which isn’t completely terrible, however, their secondary did take a massive hit with the leader, Trevon Diggs, going down for the season with a torn ACL.
Being that we’ve seen glimpses of what this team could do when playing at their peak, now could be the best time to bet on them for the most value. Their odds to win the NFC East at 200 are the second shortest in the division with the Philadelphia Eagles holding a tight grip at the top with -275 odds. They could regain the top spot though with two remaining matchups against the Eagles while Philly still has to play against the 49ers, Bills, and Chiefs.
As for the conference odds, they’re at the third shortest spot right now at 500 which is up from the 350 odds they once had earlier in the year.
As the odds sit right now, the payouts are as follows for $100 bets. $1,100 on their Super Bowl 58 odds, $500 for the odds to win the NFC Championship, and $200 for them to win the NFC East. Looking ahead to their Week 6 matchup with the Los Angeles Chargers on Monday Night Football, Dallas is going in as just a 2-point favorite on the road.
NFL Week 5 – Advanced Stats Review
San Francisco 49ers 42 – Dallas Cowboys 10 pic.twitter.com/ynaexccdZk
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| Title: Have The Cowboys Cooled Off After A Hot Start To The Season?
| Author: Sam Profeta
| Date: October 16th, 2023