The opening week of the college football season continues on Thursday and Friday and there are two games to circle that offer value when betting on them. On Thursday, a primetime game between the Florida Gators and the #14-ranked Utah Utes is scheduled.
Moving on to the Friday game, it’s the battle of two Miami’s when the University of Miami Hurricanes host the Miami University (Ohio) RedHawks.
Starting with the Thursday night matchup between Florida and Utah, the Utes are going in as 6.5-point favorites. The two faced off in the season opener last season where UF took the win with a 29-26 final score in a game that Utah was favored to win as well.
The only difference between last years game and this one is that Utah will be the home team to where they were 6-0 straight up and 5-1 against the spread as the home favorite last season.
Other than the trends that lay in Utah’s favor, the Gator’s roster is nowhere near what it was last season and that is thanks to the departure of quarterback, Anthony Richardson.
Under center now for the Gators is former Wisconsin QB, Graham Mertz who is coming off of two straight seasons with 10 interceptions and less than 20 passing touchdowns. Utah, on the other hand, is returning their start QB, Cam Rising, who is coming off of a career year having posted 3,034 passing yards and 26 touchdowns.
Looking at where the public is betting, Florida is taking the majority of the action on the spread with 52% of total bets and 62% of the money being bet.
Taking a look at the Friday matchup between Miami Ohio and the Miami Hurricane, the Canes are 16.5-point favorites and while many are considering this to be a trap game for the Canes, the RedHawks should be taken seriously. In the seven games that they lost last season, they were able to go 5-2 against a 16.5-point spread.
The Hurricanes, on the other hand, they covered a 16.5-point spread in three of five games last season, however, they proved that anyone can go into their home stadium and beat them which is what Middle Tennessee did last season.
Miami is taking more action on the spread, but neither the amount of bets nor the betting handle is over 70%. With the Hurricanes not the powerhouse that they used to be, Miami Ohio could be the first team to pull off a major upset over a Power Five team this season.
|Florida @ No. 14 Utah
|East Carolina @ No. 2 Michigan
|Virginia @ No. 12 Tennessee
|Colorado @ No. 17 TCU
|Arkansas State @ No. 20 Oklahoma
— Florida Gators Football (@GatorsFB) August 28, 2023
The Bettingoddsforfree.com simulation model, which simulates every College football game thousands’ of times, is up +47.65 units over the last three years. We have released 520 total games with 284 WINS and 236 losses ATS for a win % of 54.62%. A $100 bettor of our NCAAF would have netted a profit of $4,765 and, a $1,000 bettor would have won $47,650 just on NCAAF. We have released only a small number of college football games so far this season
| Title: NCAAF Week 1 Thursday/Friday Betting
| Author: Sam Profeta
| Date: August 28th, 2023